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Jeff Green

Jeff Green Points
Player Prop - 6/1/2023

Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat

Jeff Green Points Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-103/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -101 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -103.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Jeff Green has made 50.0% of his three-point attempts over the last 5 games, 23.0% higher than he's converted from beyond the arc in all games this season.

The Denver Nuggets check in as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games with the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce added chances for scoring and assists).

While playing on the road, the Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the league to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).

Jeff Green has converted 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 27.4% more than he's put through the hoop over the course of the year.

The matchup against the Heat may be a good one for drawing fouls; the other team's starting PFs have attempted a massive 4.6 free throws per game over the last 15 games (29th-most in the NBA).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Denver Nuggets have been the least aggressive offense in the league this year when it comes to three-point attempts.

The matchup against Miami is a hard one for 3-pointers; when the Heat are the visiting squad, the other team's starting PFs have shot for the 15th-lowest three rate in the NBA this year (25.7%).

The Denver Nuggets have played at the 5th-slowest pace in the league over the last 20 games while on their home court.

The Heat have played at the most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games away from their home city, which should reduce plays for the Nuggets.

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