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Jayson Tatum

Jayson Tatum Points
Player Prop - 4/2/2025

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat

Jayson Tatum Points Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Jayson Tatum has logged 34.0 points per game over the last 5 games playing at home, 7.4 higher than he's logged in all games this year at home.

Jayson Tatum has sunk a whopping 3.5 3-point shots per game this season, quite a bit more than his 2.9 mark last season.

Among all players in the NBA, Jayson Tatum slots into the 99th percentile for playing time, totaling a monstrous 36.4 minutes per game this year.

The matchup against the Heat is a favorable one for 3-pointers; opposing starting PFs have put up the 2nd-highest three percentage in the league this year (43.4%).

The Boston Celtics check in as the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide additional chances for scoring and assists).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Jayson Tatum has been called for 2.2 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the highest-fouling players in the league (75th percentile).

The Boston Celtics check in as the 8th-least efficient shooting team in the NBA over the last 5 games while playing at home.

The Celtics have played at the most sluggish pace in the league over the last 25 games.

The Celtics are expected to suffer a drop-off in possessions in this game from squaring off against the 2nd-least up-tempo pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Miami Heat).

Over the last 10 games, the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted 1.8 free throws per game (2nd-lowest in the NBA) against the Heat, making it tough to get to the free-throw line.

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