Jayson Tatum Points - Player Prop Bet 3/14/2025

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Jayson Tatum

NBA · Player Props

Jayson Tatum

F-G · Boston Celtics

Points

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics · Mar 14, 2025

Updated Mar 15, 2025 3:00 AM EST

Analysis

Jayson Tatum Points Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jayson Tatum has logged 34.0 points per game over the last 5 games, 6.8 higher than he's logged in all games this year.
Jayson Tatum has converted an impressive 3.6 treys per game this year, significantly more than his 2.9 mark last year.
Out of all players in the league, Jayson Tatum rates in the 97th percentile for playing time, posting a colossal 36.3 minutes per game while on the road this year.
The matchup vs. the Heat is a favorable one for shots from the field; opposing starting SFs have averaged the 7th-most shot attempts per game in the league this year (12.2).
The rate of 3-pointers drained against Jaime Jaquez Jr. has been remarkably high (39.0%) when squaring off against fellow starting SFs this year (93rd percentile).

Favors Under

Jayson Tatum has been called for 3.2 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 more than he's been called for over the course of the year.
As it relates to shooting, the Celtics's unimpressive 46.0% field goal percentage when playing on the road measures as the 8th-fewest in the league over the last 20 games.
The slowest tempo team in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Celtics.
The Heat have played at the most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA with the home court advantage this year, which ought to reduce plays for the Celtics.
Jayson Tatum will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home city usually reduces player production across the board.

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