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Jayson Tatum

Jayson Tatum Points
Player Prop - 12/2/2024

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat

Jayson Tatum Points Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (+100/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -122.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Jayson Tatum has logged 26.7 points per game playing at home this year, ranking in the 97th percentile -- among the league's best by this standard.

In contrast to last year's 8.0 rate, Jayson Tatum's shot attempts from downtown have surged this year to 10.5 per game.

Out of all players in the NBA, Jayson Tatum comes in at the 96th percentile for playing time, putting up a whopping 36.3 minutes per game this year.

The Celtics check in as the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.

This year, the other team's starting PFs have averaged 43.4% on three-pointers (2nd-highest in the NBA) against the Miami Heat, labeling this as a good matchup.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Celtics have played at the least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA while playing at home this year.

The Miami Heat have played at the 4th-most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which should lead to fewer possessions for the Boston Celtics.

The Celtics check in as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA when playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Over the last 10 games, opposing starting PFs have attempted 1.8 foul shots per game (2nd-lowest in the league) against the Miami Heat, facing an uphill battle to get to the free-throw line.

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