Jayson Tatum Points - Player Prop Bet 4/15/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Jayson Tatum

F-G · Boston Celtics

Points

Boston Celtics vs Atlanta Hawks · Apr 15, 2023

Updated Apr 16, 2023 3:01 AM EST

Analysis

Jayson Tatum Points Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 30.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jayson Tatum has sunk 57.6% of his field goal attempts over the last 5 games at home, 9.0% higher than he's sunk over the course of the year at home.
Jayson Tatum has tallied 36.2 minutes per game with the home court advantage this year, placing him in the 99th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the league.
The Hawks have played at the 6th-speediest pace in the league over the last 25 games, which should lead to more plays for the Celtics.
The Boston Celtics check in as the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create added opportunities for scoring and assists).
Jayson Tatum has sunk a terrific 7.2 foul shots per game this year, a big improvement over his 5.4 rate last year.

Favors Under

Jayson Tatum has averaged 0.1 technical fouls per game while playing at home this year, putting him in the 94th percentile -- among the NBA's most foul-prone when it comes to getting T'ed up.
The matchup against the Hawks is a tough one for 3-pointers; opposing starting SFs have averaged the 12th-least 3-point shots per game in the league this year (1.6).
The Boston Celtics have played at the most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games.
While playing away from home, the Hawks have given up the 10th-most offensive rebounds per game (10.7) in the NBA to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
As a team, the Boston Celtics have been quite unsuccesful at getting to the foul line of late: worst in the league over the last 25 games with a lowly 19.8 foul shots per game.