Jayson Tatum Made 3 Point Shots - Player Prop Bet 3/14/2025

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Jayson Tatum

NBA · Player Props

Jayson Tatum

F-G · Boston Celtics

Made 3 Point Shots

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics · Mar 14, 2025

Updated Mar 15, 2025 3:00 AM EST

Analysis

Jayson Tatum Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-165/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jayson Tatum has converted an impressive 3.6 treys per game this year, significantly more than his 2.9 mark last year.
Out of all players in the league, Jayson Tatum rates in the 97th percentile for playing time, posting a colossal 36.3 minutes per game while on the road this year.
Over the last 10 games, the other team's starting SFs have tallied 5.5 three attempts per game (5th-highest in the league) against the Heat, labeling this as a strong matchup.
The rate of 3-pointers drained against Jaime Jaquez Jr. has been remarkably high (39.0%) when squaring off against fellow starting SFs this year (93rd percentile).
The Celtics have been the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Jayson Tatum has been called for 3.2 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 more than he's been called for over the course of the year.
The slowest tempo team in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Celtics.
The Heat have played at the most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA with the home court advantage this year, which ought to reduce plays for the Celtics.
Jayson Tatum will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home city usually reduces player production across the board.

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