Jaylen Nowell Points - Player Prop Bet 1/16/2023

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Jaylen Nowell

NBA · Player Props

Jaylen Nowell

G · Minnesota Timberwolves

Points

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Utah Jazz · Jan 16, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 2:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Nowell Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jaylen Nowell has sunk 55.8% of his field goal attempts over the last 5 games at home, 6.7% higher than he's made overall this year at home.
Jaylen Nowell has attempted 3.0 foul shots per game over the last 5 games, 1.4 more than he's attempted over the course of the season.
The Minnesota Timberwolves rank as the 4th-most efficient shooting team in the NBA this year [AT_HOME_TEAM].
The Minnesota Timberwolves have played at the 4th-most up-tempo pace in the NBA at home this year.
The matchup vs. the Jazz is a good one for getting to the foul line; opposing teams have attempted a massive 22.8 foul shots per game on the road this year (7th-most in the NBA).

Favors Under

Jaylen Nowell has made a measly 26.2% of his shots from behind the three-point arc this year, significantly less than his 40.4 rate last year.
Jaylen Nowell has averaged 0.1 technical fouls per game this year, making him one of the most highest-fouling players in the NBA when it comes to technicals (84th percentile).
The Jazz have allowed the 7th-least offensive rebounds per game (11.2) in the league to opposing squads this year (which will also lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Minnesota Timberwolves check in as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year on their home court (which also eliminates additional chances for scoring and assists).
The Timberwolves have played at the 7th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA since the start of last season without the home court advantage, which should decrease plays for the Jazz.

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