Jarred Vanderbilt Points - Player Prop Bet 5/4/2023

NBA · Player Props

Jarred Vanderbilt

F · Los Angeles Lakers

Points

Golden State Warriors vs Los Angeles Lakers · May 4, 2023

Updated May 5, 2023 3:01 AM EST

Analysis

Jarred Vanderbilt Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-103/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jarred Vanderbilt has made 54.5% of his field goal attempts this year, putting him in the 86th percentile out of all players in the league.
The matchup vs. the Warriors is a positive one for 3-point attempts; the opposing team's starting PFs have tallied the 29th-most 3-point attempts per game in the NBA this year (4.7).
The Los Angeles Lakers have played at the 3rd-most up-tempo pace in the league this year.
The Warriors have played at the fastest pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which ought to increase possessions for the Lakers.
The Los Angeles Lakers have been the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games while playing away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce new opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Jarred Vanderbilt has sunk 24.3% of his attempts from beyond the arc when playing away from home this year, ranking in the 21st percentile among all players in the league.
Jarred Vanderbilt has committed 3.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games without the home court advantage, 0.8 higher than he's committed over the course of the season on the road.
The Los Angeles Lakers check in as the lowest scoring offense in the NBA away from their home court this year in terms of 3-point shots.
The Warriors have given up the most offensive rebounds per game (12.4) in the league to their opposition over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists).
Jarred Vanderbilt will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home stadium generally decreases player performance across the board.