Jarred Vanderbilt Points - Player Prop Bet 4/16/2023

NBA · Player Props

Jarred Vanderbilt

F · Los Angeles Lakers

Points

Memphis Grizzlies vs Los Angeles Lakers · Apr 16, 2023

Updated Apr 16, 2023 7:11 PM EST

Analysis

Jarred Vanderbilt Points Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-142/+116).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +116.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jarred Vanderbilt has converted 55.3% of his field goals this year, putting him in the 87th percentile among all players in the league.
Jarred Vanderbilt has made 54.2% of his 3-pointers over the last 5 games on the road, 28.4% more than he's converted from beyond the arc over the course of the year when playing away from home.
The Los Angeles Lakers have played at the 3rd-most up-tempo pace in the NBA this year.
The Grizzlies have played at the 3rd-quickest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games at home, which should increase plays for the Lakers.
The Los Angeles Lakers check in as the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games while on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Jarred Vanderbilt has committed 2.4 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the most foul-prone players in the NBA (82nd percentile).
The Los Angeles Lakers rank as the 3rd-lowest scoring offense in the league on the road this year in terms of shots from behind the three-point arc.
The matchup against the Grizzlies is a challenging one; they have given up the 15th-least points per game in the league to the opposition's starting PFs this year (13.2).
On their home court, the Grizzlies have given up the 4th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.5) in the NBA to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to new chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. the Grizzlies is a difficult one for drawing fouls; opposing starting PFs have attempted a mere 2.8 foul shots per game this year (12th-least in the league).