Jarred Vanderbilt Points - Player Prop Bet 4/11/2023

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Jarred Vanderbilt

NBA · Player Props

Jarred Vanderbilt

F · Los Angeles Lakers

Points

Los Angeles Lakers vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Apr 11, 2023

Updated Apr 12, 2023 2:16 AM EST

Analysis

Jarred Vanderbilt Points Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-135/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jarred Vanderbilt has converted 55.3% of his shot attempts from the field while on his home court this year, ranking in the 85th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
The Los Angeles Lakers have been the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 5 games.
The matchup against Minnesota is a good one; when the Timberwolves are the visiting squad, they have allowed the 26th-most points per game in the league to the opposing team's starting PFs this year (16.7).
The Timberwolves have played at the 7th-speediest pace-of-play in the league this year, which should lead to more opportunities for the Lakers.
The matchup vs. the Timberwolves is a strong one for getting to the free throw line; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted a colossal 4.0 foul shots per game this year (29th-most in the league).

Favors Under

Jarred Vanderbilt has successfully made 23.9% of his three-point shots this year, putting him in the 17th percentile among all players in the NBA.
The Los Angeles Lakers have played at the 10th-most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 9 games at home.
The Los Angeles Lakers rank as the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games while on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).
The Timberwolves have allowed the 4th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.3) in the league to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

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