James Harden Points - Player Prop Bet 5/3/2025

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James Harden

NBA · Player Props

James Harden

G · LA Clippers

Points

Denver Nuggets vs LA Clippers · May 3, 2025

Updated May 3, 2025 11:23 PM UTC

Analysis

James Harden Points Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-165/+125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

James Harden has attempted 8.3 3-pointers per game this year, significantly higher than his 6.9 rate last year.
James Harden has played 40.7 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 5.0 higher than he's played over the course of the year.
James Harden has successfully made a terrific 6.2 free throws per game this season, significantly more than his 4.2 rate last season.
In terms of getting to the foul line, the Clippers's fantastic 22.2 foul shots per game while on the road ranks 9th-best in the league this year.
The matchup against Denver may be a strong one for drawing fouls; the other team's starting PGs have attempted a massive 6.2 foul shots per game over the last 5 games when the Nuggets have the home court advantage (3rd-most in the NBA).

Favors Under

This year when they are the visiting squad, opposing starting PGs have shot 20.5% on 3-pointers (2nd-worst in the NBA) against the Denver Nuggets, making this a challenging matchup.
The least up-tempo tempo road offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the LA Clippers.
The LA Clippers will likely experience a decrease in opportunities in this game from squaring off against the 4th-least up-tempo tempo offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Nuggets).
Offensive rebounds save possession and create more chances for scoring and assists, but the Clippers grade out 2ndworst in in the NBA while playing away from home with only 8.7 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games.
James Harden will not have the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing while traveling tends to decrease player performance for all stats.

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