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James Harden Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-135/+105).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ +105.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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James Harden has tallied 33.7 minutes per game while on the road this year, ranking in the 91st percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA.The matchup vs. the Heat is a favorable one; they have allowed the 27th-most points per game in the NBA to the opposing team's starting PGs over the last 10 games (23.1).Offensive rebounds maintain possession and spark extra opportunities for scoring and assists, and the LA Clippers rank 10thbest in in the league away from their home court with 11.6 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.This year when they are away from home, the other team has grabbed 9.1 offensive boards per game (2nd-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Heat (reducing possessions that could otherwise result in added opportunities for offense).Over the last 5 games, opposing starting PGs have attempted 5.8 free throws per game (28th-most in the league) vs. the Miami Heat, easily managing to get to the foul line.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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In comparison to last year's 20.9 rate, James Harden's points per game have dropped this year to 16.9.The LA Clippers have played at the 4th-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league on the road this year.The Miami Heat have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games, which should lead to decreased possessions for the Clippers.James Harden has successfully made a measly 4.2 free throws per game this year, a sizeable decrease from his 5.2 rate last year.As a team, the Clippers have been poor at getting to the charity stripe in recent days: 6th-worst in the league over the last 20 games, tallying just 20.8 foul shots per game.
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