Jalen Williams Points - Player Prop Bet 2/12/2025

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Jalen Williams

NBA · Player Props

Jalen Williams

G-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat · Feb 12, 2025

Updated Feb 13, 2025 3:59 AM EST

Analysis

Jalen Williams Points Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jalen Williams has successfully made 45.0% of his 3-point shots over the last 5 games at home, 15.7% higher than he's made from beyond the arc over the course of the year while at home.
Jalen Williams has attempted 4.9 3-point shots per game this season, significantly higher than his 3.5 rate last season.
Among all players in the league, Jalen Williams comes in at the 87th percentile for playing time, logging a whopping 32.5 minutes per game with the home court advantage this year.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the highest scoring offense in the league over the last 15 games.
This year, opposing starting PFs have shot 43.4% on 3-pointers (2nd-best in the NBA) against the Miami Heat, identifying this as a good matchup.

Favors Under

The Miami Heat have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games, which ought to lead to fewer opportunities for the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Oklahoma City Thunder rank as the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).
Over the last 10 games, the opposition's starting PFs have attempted 1.8 free throws per game (2nd-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Heat, struggling to get to the charity stripe.

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