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Jalen Williams Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-155/+112).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -121 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ +112.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Jalen Williams has converted 66.7% of his field goals over the last 5 games, 13.3% higher than he's put through the hoop in all games this year.Jalen Williams has sunk 59.8% of his attempts from downtown over the last 15 games, 14.2% more than he's made from beyond the arc overall this year.Out of all players in the league, Jalen Williams places in the 84th percentile for playing time, tallying a massive 32.1 minutes per game this year.The Thunder rank as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 15 games.The matchup vs. Miami is a strong one for 3-pointers; when the Miami Heat are playing at home, the other team's starting PFs have put up the 30th-highest three rate in the league this year (46.4%).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Out of all players in the league, Jalen Williams comes in at the 86th percentile for personal fouls, totaling an enormous 2.7 fouls per game without the home court advantage this year.The Thunder will likely see a decline in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the 2nd-slowest pace-of-play team in the league over the last 25 games (the Heat).The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).Over the last 10 games, the opposition's starting PFs have attempted 1.8 foul shots per game (14th-fewest in the league) vs. the Heat, struggling to get to the charity stripe.Jalen Williams will not hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home stadium tends to lower player performance across the board.
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