Jalen Suggs Points - Player Prop Bet 12/26/2024

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Jalen Suggs

NBA · Player Props

Jalen Suggs

G · Orlando Magic

Points

Orlando Magic vs Miami Heat · Dec 26, 2024

Updated Dec 27, 2024 12:35 AM EST

Analysis

Jalen Suggs Points Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-134/+102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ +108 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jalen Suggs has attempted 17.2 shots per game over the last 5 games, 3.5 more than he's attempted over the course of the season.
This year, the opposition's starting SGs have tallied 6.3 3-point attempts per game (most in the NBA) vs. the Heat, designating this as a positive matchup.
The Magic check in as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional chances for scoring and assists).
Jalen Suggs has successfully made 3.6 foul shots per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.2 higher than he's converted over the course of the season when playing at home.
Jalen Suggs should see a spike in performance in all facets of the game due to holding the home court advantage in this contest.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the league, Jalen Suggs ranks in the 85th percentile for personal fouls, posting a colossal 2.6 fouls per game while playing at home this year.
The Orlando Magic have been the 3rd-lowest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 10 games.
The 3rd-least up-tempo pace-of-play team in the league over the last 20 games has been the Orlando Magic.
The Magic will likely suffer a reduction in plays today from being pitted against the 4th-most sluggish pace-of-play team in the league this year (the Miami Heat).
The matchup vs. Miami may be a hard one for getting to the free-throw line; the opposing team's starting SGs have attempted a measly 1.0 free throws per game over the last 5 games when the Heat are the visiting squad (4th-least in the league).

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