Jalen Suggs Points - Player Prop Bet 4/6/2023

NBA · Player Props

Jalen Suggs

G · Orlando Magic

Points

Orlando Magic vs Cleveland Cavaliers · Apr 6, 2023

Updated Apr 6, 2023 11:11 PM EST

Analysis

Jalen Suggs Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-115/-111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jalen Suggs has converted 57.8% of his field goals over the last 5 games at home, 14.8% more than he's put through the hoop overall this season with the home court advantage.
Jalen Suggs has made 50.7% of his shots from downtown over the last 5 games at home, 19.7% higher than he's made from downtown over the course of the year playing at home.
The Orlando Magic have played at the 5th-speediest pace in the NBA over the last 20 games.
When playing away from home, the Cavaliers have given up the 4th-least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the league to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
As a team, the Orlando Magic have been great at getting to the free throw line while at home: 5th-best in the league this year, drawing 25.9 foul shot attempts per game.

Favors Under

Jalen Suggs has committed 2.3 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the most foul-prone players in the NBA (79th percentile).
The matchup against Cleveland is a challenging one for 3-point attempts; when the Cavaliers are the visiting squad, opposing starting PGs have averaged the 15th-least 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (4.9).
The Cavaliers have played at the slowest pace in the league this year, which should lead to fewer plays for the Magic.
The Orlando Magic have been the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. the Cavaliers is a difficult one for getting to the free throw line; the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted a mere 3.8 free throws per game this year (6th-least in the league).