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Jalen Smith

Jalen Smith Points
Player Prop - 2/28/2024

Indiana Pacers vs New Orleans Pelicans

Jalen Smith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Relative to last year's 25.4% rate, Jalen Smith's 3-point effectiveness has jumped this year to 52.2%.

In terms of offense, the Indiana Pacers's exceptional 123.7 points per game ranks most in the league this year.

The Indiana Pacers have played at the most up-tempo pace in the league playing at home this year.

This year when they have the home court advantage, the other team has collected 9.0 offensive boards per game (fewest in the NBA) vs. the Pelicans (losing possessions that could otherwise result in further chances for offense).

Jalen Smith has converted 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 36.1% more than he's put through the net over the course of the season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Out of all players in the league, Jalen Smith rates in the 77th percentile for personal fouls, logging an enormous 2.2 fouls per game this year.

This matchup is a favorable one for 3-point attempts; opposing clubs have totaled the 2nd-most 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (38.8).

The Indiana Pacers will likely suffer a drop-off in possessions in this game from competing against the 4th-most lethargic tempo road team in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Pelicans).

The Indiana Pacers rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

This matchup may be a positive one for getting to the foul line; opposing teams have attempted a massive 23.4 free throws per game over the last 5 games (6th-most in the league).

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