Jalen Johnson Points - Player Prop Bet 1/3/2025

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Jalen Johnson

NBA · Player Props

Jalen Johnson

F · Atlanta Hawks

Points

Los Angeles Lakers vs Atlanta Hawks · Jan 3, 2025

Updated Jan 4, 2025 2:44 AM EST

Analysis

Jalen Johnson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-136/+102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -143 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jalen Johnson has sunk 8.1 shots made from the field per game when playing away from home this year, ranking in the 92nd percentile out of all players in the NBA.
Jalen Johnson has tallied 36.5 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 98th percentile.
The matchup against the Lakers is a favorable one for 3-point attempts; opposing starting PFs have tallied the most 3-point attempts per game in the NBA this year (5.6).
The Atlanta Hawks have played at the 2nd-quickest pace in the NBA over the last 25 games.
The Hawks check in as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA when playing away from home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to additional chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The Atlanta Hawks are expected to suffer a reduction in plays in this game from facing the 7th-least up-tempo pace team in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Lakers).
Over the last 15 games, opposing starting PFs have attempted 2.2 foul shots per game (lowest in the league) against the Los Angeles Lakers, struggling to get to the foul line.
Jalen Johnson will not enjoy the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home court tends to decrease player production for all stats.

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