Jalen Johnson Points - Player Prop Bet 12/28/2024

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Jalen Johnson

NBA · Player Props

Jalen Johnson

F · Atlanta Hawks

Points

Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat · Dec 28, 2024

Updated Dec 29, 2024 4:06 AM EST

Analysis

Jalen Johnson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-115/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jalen Johnson has sunk 7.4 buckets per game while at home this year, placing him in the 90th percentile out of all players in the league.
Among all players in the NBA, Jalen Johnson ranks in the 98th percentile for playing time, logging a massive 35.9 minutes per game on his home court this year.
The Hawks have been the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games with the home court advantage.
The matchup vs. the Miami Heat is a positive one for 3-pointers; the opposing team's starting PFs have compiled the 2nd-highest 3-point rate in the league this year (43.4%).
The Hawks have played at the fastest pace in the NBA over the last 10 games when playing at home.

Favors Under

The Hawks are expected to see a decline in opportunities today from competing against the 2nd-slowest pace offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Miami Heat).
The Hawks have been the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. the Heat may be a hard one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposition's starting PFs have attempted a measly 1.8 foul shots per game over the last 10 games (2nd-least in the NBA).

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