Jalen Johnson Points - Player Prop Bet 11/4/2024

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Jalen Johnson

NBA · Player Props

Jalen Johnson

F · Atlanta Hawks

Points

Atlanta Hawks vs Boston Celtics · Nov 4, 2024

Updated Nov 4, 2024 8:45 PM EST

Analysis

Jalen Johnson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-130/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jalen Johnson has put up 17.5 points per game when playing at home this year, putting him in the 83rd percentile -- among the best in the league in this category.
Out of all players in the NBA, Jalen Johnson measures in the 82nd percentile for field goal performance with a superb 51.7% rate since the start of last season.
Jalen Johnson has averaged 34.1 minutes per game since the start of last season, putting him among the most-used players in the league: 92nd percentile.
The Hawks have played at the 3rd-most up-tempo tempo in the league playing at home this year.
The Hawks check in as the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create new opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Jalen Johnson has tallied 2.5 personal fouls per game since the start of last season, ranking him as one of the most foul-prone players in the NBA (84th percentile).
The matchup against the Celtics is a tough one; they have given up the 2nd-least points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting PFs this year (14.5).
This year when they are at home, the other team's starting PFs have attempted 3.1 foul shots per game (8th-lowest in the league) against the Celtics, making it tough to get to the charity stripe.

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