Jalen Johnson Points - Player Prop Bet 4/9/2024

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Jalen Johnson

NBA · Player Props

Jalen Johnson

F · Atlanta Hawks

Points

Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat · Apr 9, 2024

Updated Apr 9, 2024 11:42 PM EST

Analysis

Jalen Johnson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jalen Johnson has attempted 15.2 field goals per game over the last 5 games, 2.6 higher than he's attempted overall this season.
Jalen Johnson has tallied 33.9 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the league: 92nd percentile.
The matchup against the Miami Heat is a strong one for 3-point shots; the opposition's starting PFs have compiled the 2nd-highest three rate in the league this year (43.4%).
The 4th-speediest pace home team in the league this year has been the Atlanta Hawks.
The Hawks rank as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Jalen Johnson has accumulated 2.4 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the highest-fouling players in the league (84th percentile).
The Heat have played at the most sluggish tempo in the NBA without the home court advantage this year, which should lead to fewer opportunities for the Hawks.
The matchup vs. the Miami Heat may be a difficult one for getting to the free-throw line; the other team's starting PFs have attempted a lowly 1.8 free throws per game over the last 10 games (2nd-least in the league).

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