Jalen Johnson Points - Player Prop Bet 3/18/2024

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Jalen Johnson

NBA · Player Props

Jalen Johnson

F · Atlanta Hawks

Points

Los Angeles Lakers vs Atlanta Hawks · Mar 18, 2024

Updated Mar 19, 2024 2:31 AM EST

Analysis

Jalen Johnson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-150/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jalen Johnson has attempted 15.8 shots per game over the last 10 games away from home, 2.7 higher than he's attempted over the course of the year on the road.
Jalen Johnson has made 53.3% of his 3-point shots over the last 5 games, 16.5% higher than he's sunk overall this year.
Jalen Johnson has been on the court for 33.3 minutes per game while playing on the road this year, putting him in the 90th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA.
The matchup vs. the Los Angeles Lakers is a good one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; the other team's starting PFs have averaged the most 3-point attempts per game in the NBA this year (5.6).
The Lakers have played at the 4th-most up-tempo pace in the league this year, which should raise plays for the Atlanta Hawks.

Favors Under

Relative to last year's 1.6 clip, Jalen Johnson's personal fouls per game have surged this year to 2.5.
When it comes to scoring, the Atlanta Hawks's lackluster 44.2% field goal rate places 4th-lowest in the league over the last 5 games.
The 5th-least up-tempo tempo team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Hawks.
The matchup vs. the Los Angeles Lakers may be a hard one for drawing fouls; the opposition's starting PFs have attempted a mere 2.2 foul shots per game over the last 15 games (least in the league).
Jalen Johnson will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home city generally lowers player performance across the board.

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