Jalen Johnson Points - Player Prop Bet 11/21/2023

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Jalen Johnson

NBA · Player Props

Jalen Johnson

F · Atlanta Hawks

Points

Atlanta Hawks vs Indiana Pacers · Nov 21, 2023

Updated Nov 22, 2023 12:28 AM EST

Analysis

Jalen Johnson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-170/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Compared to last season's 49.6% rate, Jalen Johnson's scoring proficiency has surged this season to 61.5%.
Jalen Johnson has converted an impressive 41.7% of his three-point attempts this year, a significant increase from his 28.4 mark last year.
In comparison to last season's 14.0 rate, Jalen Johnson's playing time has increased this season to 30.0 minutes per game.
The 6th-fastest tempo team in the NBA this year has been the Hawks.
The Hawks will likely get a boost in possessions in this contest from facing the speediest pace offense in the NBA this year (the Indiana Pacers).

Favors Under

Relative to last year's 1.6 mark, Jalen Johnson's personal fouls per game have jumped this year to 2.3.
This year when they are playing at home, the opposing team's starting PFs have totaled 2.3 3-point attempts per game (15th-fewest in the league) against the Indiana Pacers, creating a challenging matchup.
While at home, the Pacers have given up the 2nd-most offensive rebounds per game (14.3) in the league to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup against Indiana is a hard one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted a mere 3.2 foul shots per game since the start of last season when the Pacers are away from home (10th-least in the NBA).

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