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Jalen Johnson

Jalen Johnson Points
Player Prop - 11/9/2023

Orlando Magic vs Atlanta Hawks

Jalen Johnson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-106/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -106.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Jalen Johnson has converted a terrific 41.7% of his shots from downtown this season, significantly more than his 35.5 mark last season.

The 5th-most up-tempo pace home team in the league this year has been the Atlanta Hawks.

The Hawks are expected to see a rise in opportunities in this game from squaring off against the 7th-fastest pace-of-play road team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Orlando Magic).

Offensive rebounds continue possession and generate extra chances for scoring and assists, and the Atlanta Hawks grade out 6thbest in in the NBA with 11.6 offensive boards per game since the start of last season.

Since the start of last season when they are the visiting squad, opposing squads have collected 8.9 offensive boards per game (fewest in the NBA) against the Orlando Magic (diminishing possessions that could otherwise generate extra opportunities for offense).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Hawks have been the 6th-least aggressive offense in the NBA since the start of last season in terms of shots from behind the three-point arc.

Since the start of last season when they are the visiting squad, the opposing team's starting PFs have averaged 44.3% on shot attempts from the field (14th-worst in the league) vs. the Orlando Magic, marking this as a difficult matchup.

Jalen Johnson has sunk a measly 58.3% of his free throw attempts this year, a significant dropoff from his 61.3 rate last year.

Jalen Johnson will not enjoy the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home city tends to reduce player performance across the board.

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