Jalen Johnson Points - Player Prop Bet 11/4/2023

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Jalen Johnson

NBA · Player Props

Jalen Johnson

F · Atlanta Hawks

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs Atlanta Hawks · Nov 4, 2023

Updated Nov 4, 2023 10:57 PM EST

Analysis

Jalen Johnson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-120/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 3rd-quickest tempo offense in the NBA this year has been the Hawks.
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and produce additional chances for scoring and assists, and the Atlanta Hawks rank 8thbest in in the NBA with 11.4 offensive boards per game since the start of last season.
The New Orleans Pelicans have given up the 9th-least offensive rebounds per game (9.9) in the league to their opposition since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. the Pelicans is a strong one for getting to the foul line; opposing starting PFs have attempted a whopping 3.7 foul shots per game since the start of last season (24th-most in the NBA).

Favors Under

In regard to shots from behind the three-point arc, the 6th-least aggressive offense in the league since the start of last season has been the Hawks.
The matchup against the Pelicans is a challenging one for field goal attempts; the opposing team's starting PFs have tallied the 6th-least field goal attempts per game in the NBA since the start of last season (11.5).
Among all players in the league, Jalen Johnson measures in the 12th percentile for foul-shot effectiveness while playing at home with a a lackluster 62.3% rate since the start of last season.
Jalen Johnson will not hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home court generally decreases stat production in all stat categories.

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