Jalen Johnson Points - Player Prop Bet 4/18/2023

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Jalen Johnson

NBA · Player Props

Jalen Johnson

F · Atlanta Hawks

Points

Boston Celtics vs Atlanta Hawks · Apr 18, 2023

Updated Apr 18, 2023 11:46 PM EST

Analysis

Jalen Johnson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jalen Johnson has sunk 4.6 buckets per game over the last 5 games on the road, 2.1 more than he's put through the hoop in all games this year on the road.
This matchup is a difficult one for three-pointers; when the Celtics are on their home court, their opposition have shot for the lowest 3-point rate in the league this year (32.3%).
The Atlanta Hawks have played at the 5th-fastest pace in the league over the last 20 games.
The Celtics have played at the 8th-most up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 10 games on their home court, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Hawks.
The Atlanta Hawks rank as the best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games while playing away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Jalen Johnson has averaged 2.6 personal fouls per game over the last 10 games, 1.0 higher than he's averaged in all games this year.
The Atlanta Hawks rank as the least aggressive offense in the league this year in terms of attempts from beyond the arc.
When playing at home, the Celtics have allowed the most offensive rebounds per game (13.6) in the league to their opposition over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create new opportunities for scoring and assists).
Jalen Johnson will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home court usually worsens stat production in all stat categories.

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