Jalen Johnson Points - Player Prop Bet 3/11/2023

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Jalen Johnson

NBA · Player Props

Jalen Johnson

F · Atlanta Hawks

Points

Atlanta Hawks vs Boston Celtics · Mar 11, 2023

Updated Mar 12, 2023 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

Jalen Johnson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+105/-135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jalen Johnson has converted 100.0% of his 3-pointers over the last 5 games at home, 46.7% more than he's converted from 3-point range over the course of the season on his home court.
Jalen Johnson has tallied 0.4 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the least foul-whistled players in the league (3rd percentile).
The Atlanta Hawks check in as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the league at home this year.
The matchup vs. the Celtics is a challenging one; they have allowed the least points per game in the league to opposing teams this year (103.9).
Jalen Johnson has successfully made 100.0% of his free throws over the last 10 games, 16.7% more than he's put through the hoop overall this season.

Favors Under

Jalen Johnson has averaged 4.8 minutes per game this year, putting him among the least-utilized plays in the NBA: 3rd percentile.
The Atlanta Hawks have played at the 9th-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The Celtics have played at the 5th-most sluggish pace in the league over the last 20 games away from their home stadium, which ought to lead to fewer plays for the Hawks.
The Atlanta Hawks have been the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).
Away from home, the Celtics have allowed the 9th-most offensive rebounds per game (10.8) in the NBA to opposing squads over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added opportunities for scoring and assists).

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