Jalen Green Points - Player Prop Bet 4/28/2025

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Jalen Green

NBA · Player Props

Jalen Green

G · Houston Rockets

Points

Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets · Apr 28, 2025

Updated Apr 29, 2025 1:58 AM EST

Analysis

Jalen Green Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jalen Green has attempted 7.6 threes per game away from his home court this year, putting him in the 95th percentile among all players in the NBA.
Out of all players in the league, Jalen Green comes in at the 87th percentile for playing time, registering a monstrous 32.5 minutes per game without the home court advantage this year.
Offensive rebounds save possession and spark added opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Houston Rockets rank best in in the NBA with 14.7 offensive boards per game this year.
Over the last 5 games, opposing starting SGs have attempted 3.3 free throws per game (6th-highest in the league) vs. the Golden State Warriors, making it fairly effortless to get to the charity stripe.

Favors Under

In terms of shooting, the Rockets's lackluster 45.4% field goal percentage rates 8th-fewest in the league this year.
The matchup against the Warriors is a tough one for scoring; opposing starting SGs have shot for the 2nd-lowest field goal percentage in the NBA this year (38.4%).
The Houston Rockets will likely experience a decrease in opportunities in this game from facing the 6th-most sluggish pace offense in the league over the last 10 games (the Warriors).
Jalen Green has converted 57.5% of his foul shot attempts over the last 15 games on the road, 21.0% lower than he's put through the net overall this season on the road.
Jalen Green will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing without the home court advantage generally reduces stat production across the board.

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