Jalen Green Points - Player Prop Bet 1/12/2024

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Jalen Green

NBA · Player Props

Jalen Green

G · Houston Rockets

Points

Detroit Pistons vs Houston Rockets · Jan 12, 2024

Updated Jan 13, 2024 12:34 AM EST

Analysis

Jalen Green Points Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (+100/-122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jalen Green has sunk 2.8 3-pointers per game over the last 10 games, 0.6 more than he's converted from beyond the arc in all games this year.
Jalen Green has averaged 30.4 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 79th percentile.
The Pistons have played at the 6th-speediest pace in the NBA over the last 25 games, which should raise plays for the Rockets.
The Rockets check in as the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games when playing on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional chances for scoring and assists).
The Pistons have given up the 2nd-least offensive rebounds per game (8.5) in the league to opposing squads over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Relative to last year's 7.5 mark, Jalen Green's shots from the field scored have diminished this year to 5.8 per game.
With respect to offense, the Rockets's unimpressive 112.7 points per game measures as the 7th-worst in the NBA this year.
This year, the opposing team's starting SGs have averaged 27.6% on three-pointers (14th-lowest in the league) against the Detroit Pistons, identifying this as a tough matchup.
The 4th-slowest tempo road offense in the NBA this year has been the Houston Rockets.
Jalen Green will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing on the road tends to lower player production in all facets of the game.

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