Jakob Poeltl Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 12/20/2023

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Jakob Poeltl

NBA · Player Props

Jakob Poeltl

C · Toronto Raptors

Rebounds

Toronto Raptors vs Denver Nuggets · Dec 20, 2023

Updated Dec 20, 2023 10:40 PM EST

Analysis

Jakob Poeltl Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -123 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jakob Poeltl has totaled 2.9 offensive boards per game this year at home, putting him among the best in the league in this category in recent games: 95th percentile.
The Raptors rank as the best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games playing at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional chances for scoring and assists).
This year when they have the home court advantage, their opposition has brought down 10.2 offensive boards per game (9th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Denver Nuggets (lessening possessions that could otherwise lead to extra opportunities for offense).
Jakob Poeltl stands to see an increase in production in all facets of the game on account of controlling the home court advantage in this matchup.

Favors Under

Jakob Poeltl has tallied 2.7 personal fouls per game with the home court advantage this year, ranking him in the 84th percentile -- among the NBA's most-whistled.
The Toronto Raptors have played at the 4th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games.
The Nuggets have played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league this year, which should lead to decreased plays for the Raptors.

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