Jakob Poeltl Points - Player Prop Bet 3/20/2025

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Jakob Poeltl

NBA · Player Props

Jakob Poeltl

C · Toronto Raptors

Points

Golden State Warriors vs Toronto Raptors · Mar 20, 2025

Updated Mar 21, 2025 2:24 AM EST

Analysis

Jakob Poeltl Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-128/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -104 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jakob Poeltl has attempted 10.1 shots from the field per game this year, quite a bit more than his 7.6 rate last year.
Jakob Poeltl has sunk 100.0% of his shots from downtown over the last 5 games, 66.7% higher than he's converted from beyond the arc in all games this season.
Out of all players in the league, Jakob Poeltl ranks in the 78th percentile for playing time, logging a whopping 29.3 minutes per game while playing on the road this year.
The Raptors have played at the 6th-quickest pace in the league over the last 5 games.
The Raptors check in as the best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Jakob Poeltl has been called for 3.2 personal fouls per game while on the road this year, placing him in the 98th percentile -- among the league's most-whistled.
When it comes to scoring, the Toronto Raptors's unimpressive 110.5 points per game measures as the 5th-lowest in the league over the last 20 games.
The matchup vs. Draymond Green is a tough one for shot attempts from the field; when Green is at home and matched up against other starting Cs this year, they have attempted a lowly 9.6 field goals per game (3rd percentile).
The Raptors are expected to experience a decrease in plays today from facing the 7th-most lethargic tempo home team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Golden State Warriors).
The number of fouls drawn by opposing starting Cs against Draymond Green has been quite low this year (2.7 foul shot attempts per game: 24th percentile).

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