Jakob Poeltl Points - Player Prop Bet 10/28/2024

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Jakob Poeltl

NBA · Player Props

Jakob Poeltl

C · Toronto Raptors

Points

Toronto Raptors vs Denver Nuggets · Oct 28, 2024

Updated Oct 29, 2024 3:05 AM EST

Analysis

Jakob Poeltl Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jakob Poeltl has successfully made 65.2% of his shots from the field while playing at home since the start of last season, ranking in the 95th percentile out of all players in the league.
The matchup against Nikola Jokic is a good one; he has given up an enormous 16.3 points per game when guarding other starting Cs since the start of last season (96th percentile).
The 10th-quickest pace-of-play team in the NBA since the start of last season has been the Toronto Raptors.
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and lead to further opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Raptors rank 7th-best in in the league playing at home with 11.7 offensive rebounds per game since the start of last season.
The showdown with Nikola Jokic with respect to getting to the foul line lands in only the 79th percentile for difficulty with the opposition's starting Cs attempting a massive 3.6 foul shots per game since the start of last season.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the NBA, Jakob Poeltl rates in the 4th percentile for shots from behind the three-point arc when playing at home, posting 0.0 per game since the start of last season.
Out of all players in the league, Jakob Poeltl comes in at the 93rd percentile for personal fouls, posting a monstrous 2.9 fouls per game while playing at home since the start of last season.
The Raptors rank as the 4th-lowest scoring offense in the league on their home court since the start of last season.
The Denver Nuggets have played at the 4th-slowest tempo in the NBA since the start of last season, which should lead to fewer opportunities for the Toronto Raptors.

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