Jakob Poeltl Points - Player Prop Bet 3/3/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Jakob Poeltl

C · Toronto Raptors

Points

Toronto Raptors vs Charlotte Hornets · Mar 3, 2024

Updated Mar 3, 2024 11:22 PM EST

Analysis

Jakob Poeltl Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-125/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jakob Poeltl has attempted 10.2 shots from the field per game over the last 10 games, 2.6 more than he's attempted in all games this season.
The matchup against Nick Richards is a positive one for field goals; when guarding other starting Cs this year, they have converted a massive 6.6 field goals per game (93rd percentile).
The most up-tempo pace-of-play home team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Raptors.
The Toronto Raptors check in as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional chances for scoring and assists).
Jakob Poeltl stands to get a boost in output across the board in light of enjoying the home court advantage in this contest.

Favors Under

Jakob Poeltl has converted 0.0% of his shots from downtown since the start of last season, putting him in the 4th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
Among all players in the league, Jakob Poeltl slots into the 92nd percentile for personal fouls, tallying a monstrous 2.8 fouls per game when playing at home this year.
In regard to shooting, the Raptors's feeble 111.6 points per game at home settles in as the 5th-weakest in the league this year.
The Raptors are expected to suffer a reduction in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the 2nd-most sluggish pace team in the league over the last 5 games (the Charlotte Hornets).
The Hornets have allowed the most offensive rebounds per game (13.8) in the league to the other team over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide new opportunities for scoring and assists).