Jakob Poeltl Points - Player Prop Bet 2/12/2024

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Jakob Poeltl

NBA · Player Props

Jakob Poeltl

C · Toronto Raptors

Points

Toronto Raptors vs San Antonio Spurs · Feb 12, 2024

Updated Feb 13, 2024 3:58 AM EST

Analysis

Jakob Poeltl Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-152/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -152.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Relative to last year's 62.5% rate, Jakob Poeltl's field goal effectiveness has jumped this year to 68.7%.
The number of field goal attempts against Victor Wembanyama has been remarkably high (11.9 per game) when defending other starting Cs this year (97th percentile).
The Spurs have played at the 3rd-fastest pace in the NBA away from their home court this year, which ought to boost possessions for the Raptors.
Offensive rebounds retain possession and spark extra chances for scoring and assists, and the Raptors grade out 11thbest in in the league at home with 12.3 offensive rebounds per game over the last 25 games.
The San Antonio Spurs have given up the 9th-least offensive rebounds per game (9.0) in the league to their opposition over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Jakob Poeltl has sunk 0.0% of his three-point shots since the start of last season, ranking in the 4th percentile among all players in the league.
Jakob Poeltl has averaged 2.7 personal fouls per game with the home court advantage this year, ranking him in the 90th percentile -- among the NBA's most-whistled.
The Raptors check in as the 2nd-lowest scoring offense in the league over the last 5 games while on their home court.
This year when they have the home court advantage, opposing teams have totaled 14.4 three-pointers per game (5th-highest in the league) vs. the San Antonio Spurs, labeling this as a good matchup.
The Raptors have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games.

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