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Jakob Poeltl

Jakob Poeltl Points
Player Prop - 2/9/2024

Toronto Raptors vs Houston Rockets

Jakob Poeltl Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-111/-123).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -111.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Out of all players in the NBA, Jakob Poeltl comes in at the 98th percentile for scoring performance when playing at home with a a superb 72.4% rate this year.

The Toronto Raptors will likely see an increase in plays in this contest from sharing the court with the 4th-speediest pace team in the league over the last 15 games (the Rockets).

Over the last 10 games when they are at home, opposing clubs have collected 8.2 offensive rebounds per game (2nd-fewest in the league) against the Rockets (turning over possessions that could otherwise create bonus chances for offense).

The matchup against Alperen Sengun is a strong one for getting to the charity stripe; when Sengun is on the road other starting Cs this year, they have attempted an enormous 4.5 foul shots per game (89th percentile).

Jakob Poeltl will enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing in your home stadium generally increases player production in all stat categories.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Out of all players in the league, Jakob Poeltl measures in the 4th percentile for 3-point effectiveness with a a lackluster 0.0% rate since the start of last season.

Jakob Poeltl has committed 3.8 personal fouls per game over the last 10 games, 0.8 higher than he's committed over the course of the season.

The matchup vs. Alperen Sengun is a difficult one for threes; when Sengun is away from his home court and defending opposing starting Cs this year, they have successfully made a measly 22.8% of their three-pointers (10th percentile).

The 5th-least up-tempo tempo home offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Raptors.

The Toronto Raptors rank as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).

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