Jakob Poeltl Points - Player Prop Bet 2/4/2024

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Jakob Poeltl

NBA · Player Props

Jakob Poeltl

C · Toronto Raptors

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Toronto Raptors · Feb 4, 2024

Updated Feb 5, 2024 2:58 AM EST

Analysis

Jakob Poeltl Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+106/-143).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -137 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ +106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Relative to last season's 62.5% rate, Jakob Poeltl's scoring performance has jumped this season to 68.4%.
This year, opposing teams have averaged 44.9% on shots from the field (worst in the NBA) vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder, identifying this as a challenging matchup.
The 4th-quickest tempo away offense in the league over the last 25 games has been the Raptors.
The Toronto Raptors will likely get a boost in plays today from facing the 7th-quickest pace home offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Thunder).
The Raptors check in as the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Jakob Poeltl has made 0.0% of his three-pointers since the start of last season, placing him in the 4th percentile among all players in the league.
Jakob Poeltl has averaged 4.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.4 higher than he's averaged over the course of the season.
In terms of threes, the Toronto Raptors's lackluster 11.8 sunk threes per game comes in as the 7th-fewest in the NBA this year.
The number of points scored against Chet Holmgren has been remarkably low (13.5 per game) when he is playing at home and matched up against other starting Cs this year (7th percentile).
While on their home court, the Thunder have given up the most offensive rebounds per game (12.7) in the league to their opposition over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).

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