Jakob Poeltl Points - Player Prop Bet 12/30/2023

NBA · Player Props

Jakob Poeltl

C · Toronto Raptors

Points

Detroit Pistons vs Toronto Raptors · Dec 30, 2023

Updated Dec 31, 2023 3:28 AM EST

Analysis

Jakob Poeltl Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-132/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -132.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jakob Poeltl has successfully made 67.5% of his field goals when playing on the road this year, ranking in the 97th percentile among all players in the NBA.
The Raptors are expected to get a boost in opportunities today from sharing the court with the 6th-fastest pace-of-play team in the league over the last 20 games (the Pistons).
The Toronto Raptors rank as the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).
Over the last 10 games when they are on the road, opposing squads have come down with 9.5 offensive boards per game (3rd-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Pistons (shortening possessions that could otherwise lead to added chances for offense).
Jakob Poeltl has attempted 3.2 free throws per game over the last 5 games when playing on the road, 1.6 higher than he's attempted overall this season on the road.

Favors Under

Jakob Poeltl has sunk 0.0% of his shots from downtown since the start of last season, placing him in the 4th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
Jakob Poeltl has tallied 2.8 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the most foul-prone players in the league (89th percentile).
When it comes to shots from behind the three-point arc, the Toronto Raptors's unimpressive 33.4% rate of drained threes comes in as the 2nd-fewest in the NBA over the last 15 games.
This matchup is a strong one for scoring; the other team has put up the 2nd-highest Field Goal% in the NBA over the last 15 games (50.8%).
The matchup vs. Jalen Duren is a hard one for threes; when Duren is at home and matched up against fellow starting Cs this year, they have totaled a mere 0.2 3-point shots per game (3rd percentile).