Jakob Poeltl Points - Player Prop Bet 12/29/2023

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Jakob Poeltl

NBA · Player Props

Jakob Poeltl

C · Toronto Raptors

Points

Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors · Dec 29, 2023

Updated Dec 30, 2023 2:27 AM EST

Analysis

Jakob Poeltl Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-141/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -124 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -141.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the league, Jakob Poeltl rates in the 97th percentile for shooting performance without the home court advantage with a a very good 67.8% rate this year.
The matchup against the Celtics is a challenging one for field goals; the other team has posted the 3rd-lowest Field Goal% in the league over the last 20 games (45.8%).
The Toronto Raptors have played at the 8th-speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games when playing on the road.
Offensive rebounds save possession and produce extra chances for scoring and assists, and the Raptors grade out 3rdbest in in the league with 12.8 offensive rebounds per game over the last 15 games.

Favors Under

Jakob Poeltl has tallied 2.8 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the highest-fouling players in the NBA (89th percentile).
The Raptors rank as the 10th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
The clash with Luke Kornet comes in at the 3rd percentile for difficulty with the opposition's starting Cs averaging just 10.1 points per game this year when they are on the away squad.
The Boston Celtics have played at the 3rd-slowest tempo in the league over the last 5 games, which should reduce possessions for the Raptors.
The Celtics have given up the most offensive boards per game (14.2) in the league to opposing squads over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce additional chances for scoring and assists).

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