Jakob Poeltl Points - Player Prop Bet 12/15/2023

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Jakob Poeltl

NBA · Player Props

Jakob Poeltl

C · Toronto Raptors

Points

Toronto Raptors vs Atlanta Hawks · Dec 15, 2023

Updated Dec 16, 2023 12:59 AM EST

Analysis

Jakob Poeltl Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Compared to last season's 65.7% rate, Jakob Poeltl's shooting ability has spiked this season to 75.0%.
The Toronto Raptors will likely see an increase in opportunities in this game from facing the 3rd-speediest pace visiting team in the league over the last 5 games (the Hawks).
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and generate further opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Raptors rank 11thbest in in the NBA at home with 12.8 offensive rebounds per game this year.
In contrast to last season's 3.1 rate, Jakob Poeltl's number of foul shot attempts has surged this season to 3.0 foul shot attempts per game.
The matchup vs. Atlanta is a favorable one for getting to the foul line; the other team's starting Cs have attempted a monstrous 4.6 foul shots per game this year when the Atlanta Hawks are playing at home (28th-most in the league).

Favors Under

Jakob Poeltl has converted 0.0% of his three-point shots since the start of last season, ranking him in the 4th percentile out of all players in the league.
Jakob Poeltl has committed 3.5 personal fouls per game over the last 15 games, 0.9 higher than he's committed overall this season.
The Toronto Raptors have been the 10th-lowest scoring offense in the league while on their home court this year.
This year when they are the visiting squad, opposing starting Cs have totaled 0.4 3-pointers per game (9th-fewest in the league) vs. the Atlanta Hawks, creating a difficult matchup.
The 3rd-most sluggish pace offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Toronto Raptors.

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