Jakob Poeltl Points - Player Prop Bet 12/13/2023

NBA · Player Props

Jakob Poeltl

C · Toronto Raptors

Points

Toronto Raptors vs Atlanta Hawks · Dec 13, 2023

Updated Dec 14, 2023 12:40 AM EST

Analysis

Jakob Poeltl Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Compared to last year's 62.5% mark, Jakob Poeltl's field goal prowess has surged this year to 72.5%.
The Toronto Raptors will likely see a rise in possessions today from squaring off against the 3rd-speediest tempo away team in the league this year (the Hawks).
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and bring about bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Toronto Raptors grade out 10thbest in in the NBA while on their home court with 12.9 offensive boards per game this year.
The matchup against Atlanta is a good one for getting to the foul line; the other team's starting Cs have attempted a massive 4.5 foul shots per game this year when the Atlanta Hawks are playing at home (27th-most in the league).
Jakob Poeltl will hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing in your home city generally improves player performance in all facets of the game.

Favors Under

Jakob Poeltl has tallied 3.5 personal fouls per game over the last 15 games away from his home court, 1.1 higher than he's tallied in all games this year on the road.
When it comes to offense, the Toronto Raptors's feeble 111.4 points per game comes in as the 8th-worst in the NBA this year.
The matchup vs. Atlanta is a difficult one for shot attempts from the field; when the Hawks are on their home court, the opposing team's starting Cs have tallied the 8th-least field goal attempts per game in the NBA this year (9.5).
The 2nd-most lethargic tempo home offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Toronto Raptors.
This year when they are at home, opposing teams have nabbed 12.0 offensive rebounds per game (5th-most in the league) against the Atlanta Hawks (lengthening possessions that can generate more opportunities for offense).