Jakob Poeltl Points - Player Prop Bet 11/21/2023

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Jakob Poeltl

NBA · Player Props

Jakob Poeltl

C · Toronto Raptors

Points

Orlando Magic vs Toronto Raptors · Nov 21, 2023

Updated Nov 22, 2023 3:53 AM EST

Analysis

Jakob Poeltl Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In contrast to last year's 62.5% mark, Jakob Poeltl's field goal efficiency has spiked this year to 71.5%.
The Toronto Raptors have played at the 9th-speediest tempo in the league over the last 5 games while playing away from home.
The Magic have played at the 5th-fastest tempo in the league over the last 10 games in their home city, which ought to boost possessions for the Toronto Raptors.
The Toronto Raptors check in as the 7th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA while playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce added opportunities for scoring and assists).
This year, opposing clubs have captured 7.0 offensive boards per game (lowest in the NBA) vs. the Orlando Magic (minimizing possessions that could otherwise spark additional opportunities for offense).

Favors Under

Jakob Poeltl has been called for 2.7 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most highest-fouling players in the NBA (82nd percentile).
In terms of scoring, the Raptors's unimpressive 109.2 points per game at home places 8th-lowest in the NBA this year.
This year when they are playing at home, opposing starting Cs have tallied 0.2 3-pointers per game (15th-fewest in the league) vs. the Orlando Magic, marking this as a difficult matchup.
Relative to last year's 54.4% clip, Jakob Poeltl's foul-shot effectiveness has dropped this year to 33.3%.
Jakob Poeltl is expected to suffer a drop-off in effectiveness in all facets of the game on account of playing away from hom in this contest.

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