Jakob Poeltl Points - Player Prop Bet 11/1/2023

NBA · Player Props

Jakob Poeltl

C · Toronto Raptors

Points

Toronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks · Nov 1, 2023

Updated Nov 1, 2023 11:02 PM EST

Analysis

Jakob Poeltl Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-105/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jakob Poeltl has attempted 7.9 shots per game over the last 15 games, core.FORMAT(ABS(DIFF_RATE),1) more than he's attempted overall this year.
This matchup is a tough one for threes; when the Milwaukee Bucks are at home, opposing clubs have posted the 4th-lowest 3-point rate in the league since the start of last season (34.8%).
The Raptors will likely see a spike in opportunities in this game from competing against the 9th-fastest pace team in the league since the start of last season (the Bucks).
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and result in more opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Raptors grade out 14thbest in in the league on the road with 13.3 offensive boards per game since the start of last season.
Compared to his full-season mark of core.FORMAT(RATE2,1)% in [AWAY_ROAD] games, Jakob Poeltl's prowess has surged by core.FORMAT(ABS(DIFF_RATE),1)% over the last 15 games [AS_A_VISITING_PLAYER].

Favors Under

Among all players in the NBA, Jakob Poeltl comes in at the 89th percentile for personal fouls, averaging a monstrous 2.7 fouls per game while playing on the road since the start of last season.
The Toronto Raptors check in as the 7th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season when they are playing at home, the opposition's starting Cs have shot 51.8% on shot attempts from the field (15th-lowest in the league) vs. the Bucks, branding this as a tough matchup.
The 5th-slowest pace-of-play home team in the NBA this year has been the Toronto Raptors.
Since the start of last season when they are at home, the opposition's starting Cs have attempted 2.9 foul shots per game (13th-fewest in the league) vs. the Bucks, finding it difficult to get to the foul line.