Jakob Poeltl Points - Player Prop Bet 4/7/2023

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Jakob Poeltl

NBA · Player Props

Jakob Poeltl

C · Toronto Raptors

Points

Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors · Apr 7, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 10:31 PM EST

Analysis

Jakob Poeltl Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The matchup vs. Boston is a good one for threes; when the Celtics are on their home court, the other team's starting Cs have posted the 24th-highest three percentage in the league this year (37.9%).
The Celtics have played at the 2nd-fastest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games with the home court advantage, which should increase possessions for the Raptors.
The Toronto Raptors have been the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
While at home, the Celtics have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (8.3) in the NBA to the other team over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).
Jakob Poeltl has converted a terrific 56.6% of his free throws this season, a sizeable increase from his 47.8 mark last season.

Favors Under

Jakob Poeltl has sunk just 0.0% of his three-point shots this season, quite a bit lower than his 100.0 rate last season.
Jakob Poeltl has averaged 2.5 personal fouls per game away from home this year, ranking in the 83rd percentile -- among the NBA's most foul-prone.
The Toronto Raptors have been the 4th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 20 games.
The Toronto Raptors have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games.
Jakob Poeltl will not hold the home court advantage in this contest. Playing on the road generally lowers stat production across the board.

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