Jakob Poeltl Points - Player Prop Bet 4/5/2023

NBA · Player Props

Jakob Poeltl

C · Toronto Raptors

Points

Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors · Apr 5, 2023

Updated Apr 6, 2023 3:01 AM EST

Analysis

Jakob Poeltl Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jakob Poeltl has successfully made 7.4 buckets per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.9 higher than he's put through the net in all games this year away from his home court.
The matchup vs. Boston is a favorable one for 3-pointers; when the Celtics are playing at home, the other team's starting Cs have posted the 24th-highest three percentage in the NBA this year (37.9%).
The Celtics have played at the 2nd-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games with the home court advantage, which should lead to increased plays for the Raptors.
The Toronto Raptors rank as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to additional chances for scoring and assists).
At home, the Celtics have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (8.3) in the NBA to opposing teams over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Jakob Poeltl has sunk a measly 0.0% of his shots from behind the three-point arc this year, significantly lower than his 100.0 rate last year.
Jakob Poeltl has been called for 2.5 personal fouls per game on the road this year, ranking him in the 84th percentile -- among the league's most foul-prone.
The Toronto Raptors rank as the 7th-lowest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games while on the road.
The Toronto Raptors have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games when playing on the road.
Jakob Poeltl will not enjoy the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home court tends to worsens stat production in all facets of the game.