Jakob Poeltl Points - Player Prop Bet 3/6/2023

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Jakob Poeltl

NBA · Player Props

Jakob Poeltl

C · Toronto Raptors

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Toronto Raptors · Mar 6, 2023

Updated Mar 6, 2023 10:37 PM EST

Analysis

Jakob Poeltl Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-118/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -128 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The matchup vs. Denver is a positive one for shots from the field; when the Nuggets are on their home court, the other team's starting Cs have put up the 29th-highest field goal rate in the league this year (63.8%).
The Nuggets have played at the 4th-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games in their home stadium, which should lead to more opportunities for the Raptors.
The Toronto Raptors have been the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to new chances for scoring and assists).
While at home, the Nuggets have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (7.2) in the NBA to opposing clubs over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The Toronto Raptors have been the 6th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 20 games on the road.
The Toronto Raptors have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace in the league over the last 5 games.
The matchup against Denver may be a challenging one for getting to the foul line; the other team's starting Cs have attempted a measly 1.9 free throws per game over the last 20 games when the Nuggets are at home (14th-least in the league).

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