Jae'Sean Tate Points - Player Prop Bet 1/8/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Jae'Sean Tate

F · Houston Rockets

Points

Miami Heat vs Houston Rockets · Jan 8, 2024

Updated Jan 9, 2024 2:57 AM EST

Analysis

Jae'Sean Tate Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-111/-123).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -103 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jae'Sean Tate has made 55.3% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 5 games, 6.0% higher than he's put through the hoop overall this season.
Jae'Sean Tate has played 26.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 7.4 more than he's played overall this season.
The matchup against the Miami Heat is a strong one for field goal attempts; the opposition's starting SFs have totaled the 24th-most field goal attempts per game in the NBA this year (12.2).
The Rockets have been the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games as the visting team (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
This year, their opposition has come down with 9.3 offensive rebounds per game (fewest in the league) against the Heat (reducing possessions that could otherwise spark further chances for offense).

Favors Under

Jae'Sean Tate has been called for 3.8 personal fouls per game over the last 14 games without the home court advantage, 1.7 more than he's been called for in all games this season on the road.
With respect to offense, the Rockets's subpar 110.5 points per game while playing away from home settles in as the 7th-fewest in the NBA this year.
The matchup against Jaime Jaquez Jr. is a tough one for shots from downtown; when facing fellow starting SFs this year, they have converted a mere 30.8% of their attempts from beyond the arc (23rd percentile).
The 4th-slowest tempo away team in the NBA this year has been the Houston Rockets.
The Heat have played at the 2nd-slowest pace in the league over the last 25 games, which ought to lead to fewer possessions for the Rockets.