Jaden McDaniels Points - Player Prop Bet 1/11/2025

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NBA · Player Props

Jaden McDaniels

F · Minnesota Timberwolves

Points

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Memphis Grizzlies · Jan 11, 2025

Updated Jan 12, 2025 12:04 AM EST

Analysis

Jaden McDaniels Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-129/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jaden McDaniels has successfully made 2.0 threes per game over the last 5 games at home, 0.7 more than he's converted from downtown overall this year on his home court.
Jaden McDaniels has tallied 30.1 minutes per game while on his home court this year, placing him in the 76th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the league.
With respect to 3-point attempts, the 7th-most aggressive offense in the league this year has been the Timberwolves.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are expected to see a spike in plays today from facing the fastest pace team in the NBA this year (the Memphis Grizzlies).
Jaden McDaniels has made 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 23.9% higher than he's made in all games this year.

Favors Under

Jaden McDaniels has committed 2.4 personal fouls per game with the home court advantage this year, putting him in the 79th percentile -- among the league's most-whistled.
This year when they have the home court advantage, the opposition's starting SFs have tallied 9.7 field goal attempts per game (2nd-fewest in the NBA) against the Memphis Grizzlies, marking this as a hard matchup.
The 2nd-slowest tempo offense in the league over the last 25 games has been the Timberwolves.
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and create bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Minnesota Timberwolves rank 10thworst in in the league with only 10.2 offensive rebounds per game this year.
The matchup against the Grizzlies may be a tough one for getting to the free-throw line; opposing starting SFs have attempted a mere 2.6 free throws per game over the last 12 games (3rd-least in the league).