Jaden McDaniels Points - Player Prop Bet 12/23/2024

NBA · Player Props

Jaden McDaniels

F · Minnesota Timberwolves

Points

Atlanta Hawks vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Dec 23, 2024

Updated Dec 24, 2024 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Jaden McDaniels Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jaden McDaniels has made 46.1% of his 3-point attempts over the last 10 games on the road, 9.4% more than he's converted from downtown over the course of the season without the home court advantage.
Jaden McDaniels has played 30.2 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 76th percentile.
With respect to shot attempts from downtown, the 5th-most aggressive team in the league this year has been the Minnesota Timberwolves.
The matchup vs. Atlanta is a favorable one for three-point shots; when the Atlanta Hawks are playing at home, the opposing team's starting SFs have put up the highest three rate in the NBA this year (60.1%).
The Minnesota Timberwolves are expected to see an increase in plays in this contest from squaring off against the speediest pace home team in the league this year (the Hawks).

Favors Under

Out of all players in the league, Jaden McDaniels registers in the 95th percentile for personal fouls, posting a whopping 2.9 fouls per game this year.
The 5th-most lethargic pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Timberwolves.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have been the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
Over the last 20 games, the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted 2.0 free throws per game (lowest in the league) vs. the Atlanta Hawks, facing an uphill battle to draw fouls.
Jaden McDaniels will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing without the home court advantage generally worsens player production for all stats.