Jaden McDaniels Points - Player Prop Bet 2/4/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Jaden McDaniels

F · Minnesota Timberwolves

Points

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Houston Rockets · Feb 4, 2024

Updated Feb 4, 2024 10:37 PM EST

Analysis

Jaden McDaniels Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-137/-137).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -137 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jaden McDaniels has attempted 4.8 3-point shots per game over the last 5 games while playing at home, 1.3 more than he's attempted in all games this season at home.
In terms of 3-point shots, the Timberwolves's fantastic 42.7% rate of sunk threes comes in as the most in the league over the last 10 games.
The matchup against Houston is a positive one for threes; when the Houston Rockets are on the road, the other team's starting SFs have tallied the 28th-most treys per game in the NBA this year (2.4).
The Minnesota Timberwolves are expected to get a boost in opportunities in this game from squaring off against the most up-tempo pace team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Houston Rockets).
Over the last 5 games, opposing clubs have secured 6.2 offensive rebounds per game (2nd-lowest in the league) against the Rockets (lessening possessions that could otherwise result in further chances for offense).

Favors Under

Jaden McDaniels has tallied 2.9 personal fouls per game when playing at home this year, ranking in the 95th percentile -- among the NBA's highest-fouling.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have played at the 2nd-slowest pace in the league over the last 5 games.
The Timberwolves check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA while on their home court this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. Houston may be a tough one for getting to the free-throw line; the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted a lowly 2.0 free throws per game over the last 10 games when the Rockets are the visiting team (12th-least in the league).