Jaden McDaniels Points - Player Prop Bet 12/28/2023

NBA · Player Props

Jaden McDaniels

F · Minnesota Timberwolves

Points

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks · Dec 28, 2023

Updated Dec 29, 2023 1:09 AM EST

Analysis

Jaden McDaniels Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-132/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -132.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jaden McDaniels has attempted 11.2 shots per game over the last 5 games, 2.8 more than he's attempted overall this year.
Jaden McDaniels has made 58.6% of his three-point shots over the last 5 games at home, 11.2% more than he's made from three in all games this year playing at home.
Jaden McDaniels has been on the court for 34.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 8.0 higher than he's been on the court for in all games this season.
In terms of offense, the Timberwolves's outstanding 49.2% field goal percentage comes in as the 4th-strongest in the NBA over the last 25 games.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are expected to get a boost in plays in this contest from being pitted against the 3rd-speediest pace road offense in the league over the last 15 games (the Mavericks).

Favors Under

Jaden McDaniels has committed 2.9 personal fouls per game playing at home this year, placing him in the 90th percentile -- among the NBA's most foul-prone.
The matchup against the Mavericks is a tough one; they have allowed the 14th-least points per game in the NBA to the opposing team's starting SFs over the last 15 games (11.4).
The 10th-most lethargic pace-of-play offense in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Timberwolves.
The Minnesota Timberwolves rank as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA while on their home court this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Dallas Mavericks have allowed the 5th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.8) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide additional chances for scoring and assists).